Post-2018 Ethiopia: state fragility, failure, or collapse?

Area of Science:

• Political Science
• International Relations
• African Studies

Background:

• Ethiopia faces multifaceted challenges including war, displacement, and humanitarian crises.
• Widespread, often arbitrary, use of terms like "state fragility," "state failure," and "state collapse" to describe Ethiopia's situation.
• Need for clear conceptualization and analysis of these terms in the Ethiopian context post-2018.

Purpose of the Study:

• To define and differentiate the concepts of state fragility, state failure, and state collapse.
• To analyze whether post-2018 Ethiopia can be accurately characterized by state fragility, failure, or collapse.
• To assess the implications of Ethiopia's state condition on regional stability.

Main Methods:

• Qualitative research approach.
• Primary data collection through secondary sources.
• Conceptual analysis of state fragility, failure, and collapse.

Main Results:

• State fragility, failure, and collapse are defined by the state's capacity to monopolize legitimate violence and perform basic functions.
• Ethiopia is currently characterized by state fragility and is showing signs of descending into state failure.
• The state's weakness has significant negative implications for regional stability due to Ethiopia's geopolitical importance.

Conclusions:

• Ethiopia's current condition aligns with definitions of state fragility, with a trajectory towards state failure.
• The ongoing crisis poses a substantial risk to regional security and stability.
• Proactive measures are crucial to avert further deterioration and mitigate destabilizing effects on the region.