The impact of metabolic syndrome on chronic kidney disease development. Insights from a big prospective study

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) can progress over time and cause renal replacement therapy. Studies showed the association between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and CKD. Current evidence is from cross-sectional studies. There is a need for the robust data from big prospective cohort studies with long-term follow-up. This study investigated the association between CKD and MetS after 18 years of follow-up.

Among 15,255 participants aged ≥20 years at baseline (1999-2005), after exclusion of CKD, cancer, and use of corticosteroids, 8987 participants entered the study and followed at a three-year cycle up to 2018. All participants were divided into five subgroups: (1) MetS-free, (2) MetS (DM+, HTN-), (3) MetS+ (DM-, HTN+), (4) MetS+ (DM+, HTN+) and (5) MetS+ (DM-, HTN-).

At baseline, the mean age of the participants was 39.8 ± 13.3 years; 4996 (55.6%) were females. CKD was developed in 2038 (22.7%) subjects during 18 years of follow-up, of whom 1107 had MetS. After adjusting for the confounding variables, MetS (DM+, HTN+) subgroup had the highest risk of CKD (HR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.32-1.71). MetS subjects with five components had a higher incidence rate of CKD (HR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.22-1.68). There was no association between high waist circumference (WC) (HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.99-1.19) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (HR = 1.07, 95% CI = 0.98-1.18) with CKD.

CKD significantly develops in patients with MetS. Metabolic syndrome was associated with the development of chronic kidney disease incidence. Hypertension, diabetes, and age were strong indicators, while abdominal obesity and reduced HDL were not associated with the incidence of CKD.