Projected burden of stroke in China through 2050

Stroke is the leading cause of death in China, and predicting the stroke burden could provide essential information guiding the setting of medium- and long-term health policies and priorities. The study aimed to project trends associated with stroke burden in China through 2050, not only in terms of incidence and mortality but also for prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

Data on stroke rates in incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs in China between 1990 and 2019 were obtained from a recent Global Burden of Disease study. Demographic-specific trends in rates over time were estimated using three models: the loglinear model, the Lee-Carter model, and a functional time series model. The mean absolute percentage error and the root mean squared error were used for model selection. Projections up to 2050 were estimated using the best fitting model. United Nations population data were used to project the absolute numbers through 2050.

From 2019 to 2050, the crude rates for all measures of the stroke burden are projected to increase continuously among both men and women. We project that compared with those in 2019, the incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs because of stroke in China in 2050 will increase by 55.58%, 119.16%, 72.15%, and 20.04%, respectively; the corresponding increases in number were 2.19, 34.27, 1.58, and 9.21 million. The age-standardized rate is projected to substantially decline for incidence (8.94%), death (40.37%), and DALYs (43.47%), but the age-standardized prevalence rate is predicted to increase by 10.82%. By 2050, the burden of stroke among the population aged ≥65 years will increase significantly: by 104.70% for incidence, by 218.48% for prevalence, by 100.00% for death, and by 58.93% for DALYs.

With the aging population in China increasing over the next three decades, the burden of stroke will be markedly increased. Continuous efforts are needed to improve stroke health care and secondary prevention, especially for older adults.