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Trajectory Data Analyses for Pedestrian Space-time Activity Study
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Trading contact tracing efficiency for finding patient zero.

Marcin Waniek1, Petter Holme2,3, Katayoun Farrahi4

  • 1Computer Science, Science Division, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

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|December 30, 2022
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Contact tracing can help find a pandemic's origin, but increased resources yield diminishing returns for source detection. There's a trade-off between identifying infected individuals and pinpointing patient zero.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Network Science
  • Computational Biology

Background:

  • Identifying the origin of infectious disease outbreaks, like COVID-19, is crucial but challenging.
  • Contact tracing is a standard public health tool, but its application for source detection remains underexplored.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the potential of contact tracing methods for identifying the source of an infection (patient zero).
  • To analyze the impact of contact tracing parameters on source detection and infected individual identification.

Main Methods:

  • Simulations were conducted on temporal networks using a diffusion model replicating COVID-19 pandemic dynamics.
  • The study explored how varying contact tracing budgets and disease variant infectivity affect source detection and case identification.

Main Results:

  • Enhanced contact tracing improves infected individual identification up to a point, with diminishing returns for source detection.
  • More infectious disease variants facilitate source detection but complicate the identification of infected individuals.
  • A fundamental trade-off exists between using contact tracing for identifying infected individuals versus detecting the infection's source.

Conclusions:

  • Optimizing contact tracing for source detection may require different strategies than for general case identification.
  • The study highlights a critical balance between resource allocation for finding patient zero and broader public health surveillance.