Toxicogenomics scoring system: TGSS, a novel integrated risk assessment model for chemical carcinogenicity prediction

Given the increasing exposure of humans to environmental chemicals and the limitations of conventional toxicity test, there is an urgent need to develop next-generation risk assessment methods.

This study aims to establish a novel computational system named Toxicogenomics Scoring System (TGSS) to predict the carcinogenicity of chemicals coupling chemical-gene interactions with multiple cancer transcriptomic datasets.

Chemical-related gene signatures were derived from chemical-gene interaction data from the Comparative Toxicogenomics Database (CTD). For each cancer type in TCGA, genes were ranked by their effects on tumorigenesis, which is based on the differential expression between tumor and normal samples. Next, we developed carcinogenicity scores (C-scores) using pre-ranked GSEA to quantify the correlation between chemical-related gene signatures and ranked gene lists. Then we established TGSS by systematically evaluating the C-scores in multiple chemical-tumor pairs. Furthermore, we examined the performance of our approach by ROC curves or prognostic analyses in TCGA and multiple independent cancer cohorts.

Forty-six environmental chemicals were finally included in the study. C-score was calculated for each chemical-tumor pair. The C-scores of IARC Group 3 chemicals were significantly lower than those of chemicals in Group 1 (P-value = 0.02) and Group 2 (P-values = 7.49 ×10^-5). ROC curves analysis indicated that C-score could distinguish "high-risk chemicals" from the other compounds (AUC = 0.67) with a specificity and sensitivity of 0.86 and 0.57. The results of survival analysis were also in line with the assessed carcinogenicity in TGSS for the chemicals in Group 1. Finally, consistent results were further validated in independent cancer cohorts.

TGSS highlighted the great potential of integrating chemical-gene interactions with gene-cancer relationships to predict the carcinogenic risk of chemicals, which would be valuable for systems toxicology.