A stochastic model of edge-localized modes in magnetically confined plasmas

Magnetically confined plasmas are far from equilibrium and pose considerable challenges in statistical analysis. We discuss a non-perturbative statistical method, namely a time-dependent probability density function (PDF) approach that is potentially useful for analysing time-varying, large, or non-Gaussian fluctuations and bursty events associated with instabilities in the low-to-high confinement transition and the H-mode. Specifically, we present a stochastic Langevin model of edge-localized modes (ELMs) by including stochastic noise terms in a previous ODE ELM model. We calculate exact time-dependent PDFs by numerically solving the Fokker-Planck equation and characterize time-varying statistical properties of ELMs for different energy fluxes and noise amplitudes. The stochastic noise is shown to introduce phase-mixing and plays a significant role in mitigating extreme bursts of large ELMs. Furthermore, based on time-dependent PDFs, we provide a path-dependent information geometric theory of the ELM dynamics and demonstrate its utility in capturing self-regulatory relaxation oscillations, bursts and a sudden change in the system. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'H-mode transition and pedestal studies in fusion plasmas'.