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Compound impacts from droughts and structural vulnerability on human mobility.

Lisa Thalheimer¹, Nicolas Choquette-Levy¹, Filiz Garip^1,2

¹School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

|January 2, 2023

Summary

Compound drought events increase vulnerability and force migration. Social factors and repeated droughts limit adaptation options, restricting migration for vulnerable households.

Keywords:

Climatology Human Geography Social sciences

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Area of Science:

Environmental Science
Sociology
Climate Change Adaptation

Background:

Extreme dry events disrupt population migration.
Warming climate amplifies vulnerability and drives forced migration through compound drought events.

Purpose of the Study:

Investigate societal impacts of compound drought events.
Analyze how mobility patterns are shaped by drought and social vulnerability.
Examine migration as an adaptation strategy.

Main Methods:

Multi-method research design.
Analysis of mobility patterns in drought-prone countries (Madagascar, Nepal, Mexico).
Assessment of drought and social vulnerability intersections.

Main Results:

Internal migration in Mexico's agricultural communities increased by 14-24 basis points (1991-2018).
Nepal may see a 2-15 basis point increase in migration due to compound drought in 2025.
Consecutive droughts exacerbate vulnerabilities, limiting adaptation and long-range migration.

Conclusions:

Compound drought events significantly impact migration patterns.
Social pre-conditions like isolation and misinformation restrict migration as an adaptation strategy.
Policy interventions are needed to support vulnerable populations facing climate-induced migration.