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Pandemic Preference Shocks and Inflation in a New Keynesian Model.

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This study introduces preference shocks, including the disutility of working and demand for goods versus services, into a New Keynesian model. These shocks, particularly during the pandemic, significantly impacted inflation and output, suggesting their importance for economic analysis.

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Area of Science:

  • Macroeconomics
  • Econometrics

Background:

  • Traditional New Keynesian models often focus on productivity and monetary shocks.
  • Preference shocks, specifically to labor disutility and goods/services demand, have been less explored.
  • Understanding these shocks is crucial for analyzing modern economic dynamics, including recent pandemic-related shifts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To construct and analyze model-based historical processes for preference shocks using U.S. data.
  • To investigate the impact of these preference shocks within a New Keynesian framework.
  • To provide context for economic shifts observed during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized U.S. data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics (1948-2022).
  • Developed model-based historical processes for two types of preference shocks.
  • Simulated the New Keynesian model with these constructed shock processes.

Main Results:

  • Both preference shocks exhibited unprecedented magnitudes coinciding with the pandemic.
  • A relative demand shock caused divergent inflation and labor movements across sectors.
  • A labor disutility shock resulted in stagflationary effects (rising inflation, decreasing output).

Conclusions:

  • Preference shocks, especially when acting simultaneously, can generate significant sectoral divergences and overall economic contraction.
  • These findings highlight the utility of preference shocks for understanding pandemic-era economic behavior.
  • The study advocates for increased attention to preference shocks among economists and policymakers.