Reliability Calculation Method of Shipborne Vehicles' Sortie Mission for Dynamic Network Structure

To provide decision support to the commander, it is necessary to calculate shipborne vehicles' sortie mission reliability during the formulation of the layout plan. Therefore, this paper presents the sortie mission network model and reliability calculation method for shipborne vehicles. Firstly, the shipborne vehicle layout and sortie task characteristics are used to establish the sortie mission network model. The shipborne vehicles' sortie mission reliability problem is transformed into a two-terminal network reliability problem. Secondly, the minimal path set method is used to calculate the two-terminal network reliability. An improved tabu search algorithm based on a strategy of breaking up the whole into parts is proposed to search for the minimal path set that matches the length. Finally, the sum of disjoint products is used to process the minimal path set to obtain the shipborne vehicles' sortie mission reliability calculation formula. A numerical analysis of two simplified shipborne vehicles' layouts is given to illustrate the calculation process of the method. This study provides a new evaluation index and an effective quantitative basis for the evaluation system of shipborne vehicles' layout. It also provides theoretical support for the development of decision-making related to the sortie mission of shipborne vehicles.