Immune-related gene-based prognostic index for predicting survival and immunotherapy outcomes in colorectal carcinoma

Colorectal cancer shows high incidence and mortality rates. Immune checkpoint blockade can be used to treat colorectal carcinoma (CRC); however, it shows limited effectiveness in most patients.

To identify patients who may benefit from immunotherapy using immune checkpoint inhibitors, we constructed an immune-related gene prognostic index (IRGPI) for predicting the efficacy of immunotherapy in patients with CRC. Transcriptome datasets and clinical information of patients with CRC were used to identify differential immune-related genes between tumor and para-carcinoma tissue. Using weighted correlation network analysis and Cox regression analysis, the IRGPI was constructed, and Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to evaluate its predictive ability. We also analyzed the molecular and immune characteristics between IRGPI high-and low-risk subgroups, performed sensitivity analysis of ICI treatment, and constructed overall survival-related receiver operating characteristic curves to validate the IRGPI. Finally, IRGPI genes and tumor immune cell infiltration in CRC model mice with orthotopic metastases were analyzed to verify the results.

The IRGPI was constructed based on the following 11 hub genes: ADIPOQ, CD36, CCL24, INHBE, UCN, IL1RL2, TRIM58, RBCK1, MC1R, PPARGC1A, and LGALS2. Patients with CRC in the high-risk subgroup showed longer overall survival than those in the low-risk subgroup, which was confirmed by GEO database. Clinicopathological features associated with cancer progression significantly differed between the high- and low-risk subgroups. Furthermore, Kaplan-Meier analysis of immune infiltration showed that the increased infiltration of naïve B cells, macrophages M1, and regulatory T cells and reduced infiltration of resting dendritic cells and mast cells led to a worse overall survival in patients with CRC. The ORC curves revealed that IRGPI predicted patient survival more sensitive than the published tumor immune dysfunction and rejection and tumor inflammatory signature.

Thus, the low-risk subgroup is more likely to benefit from ICIs than the high-risk subgroup. CRC model mice showed higher proportions of Tregs, M1 macrophages, M2 macrophages and lower proportions of B cells, memory B cell immune cell infiltration, which is consistent with the IRGPI results. The IRGPI can predict the prognosis of patients with CRC, reflect the CRC immune microenvironment, and distinguish patients who are likely to benefit from ICI therapy.