Development and validation of prognostic nomograms in patients with gallbladder mucinous adenocarcinoma: A...

Gallbladder mucinous adenocarcinoma (GBMAC) is an uncommon malignant gallbladder tumor. There are few studies on its prognosis, with the majority consisting of small series or individual cases. We sought to develop and validate nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in GBMAC patients.

The clinicopathological data of GBMAC patients from 1975 to 2019 was extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and all patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (70%) and a validation cohort (30%). Using multivariate Cox regression analyses based on Akaike information criterion (AIC), prognostic and important variables for GBMAC were determined. On the basis of these factors, nomograms were developed to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS rates of patients with GBMAC. Multiple parameters, including the area under the subject operating characteristic curve (AUC), the calibration plots, and the decision curve analysis (DCA), were then used to evaluate the accuracy of nomograms.

Following exclusion, a total of 707 GBMAC patients were enrolled, and the training cohort (490, 70%) and validation cohort (217, 30%) were randomly assigned. Grade, surgery, radiation, and SEER stage were predictive factors for patients with GBMAC, as indicated by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses based on AIC. We created nomograms for predicting OS and CSS in GBMAC using the four factors. The calibration curves and area under the curves (AUCs) indicated that our nomograms have a moderate degree of predictive accuracy and capability. The results of the DCA revealed that the nomogram has a high predictive value.

We established the first nomograms for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS in GBMAC patients, thereby contributing to the prognostication of patients and clinical management.