Smoking as the most important risk factor for chronic pancreatitis in the general population

We tested the hypothesis that six toxic risk factors from the TIGAR-O classification system are equally important for risk of chronic pancreatitis, at the level of the individual patient and in the general population. 108,438 women and men aged 20-100 years participating in the Copenhagen General Population Study from 2003 to 2015 were included. Associations of smoking, alcohol intake, waist/hip ratio, kidney function, plasma triglycerides, plasma Ca²⁺, and diseases within the causal pathway with risk of chronic pancreatitis, and corresponding population attributable risks were estimated. Information on chronic pancreatitis was from national Danish health registries. During median 9 years (range: 0-15) of follow-up, 313 individuals had a first diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis; the incidence of chronic pancreatitis per 10,000 person-years were 3.1 overall, 2.8 in women, and 3.5 in men. Of the six toxic risk factors and relative to individuals with low values, individuals in the top 5% had hazard ratios for chronic pancreatitis of 3.1(95% CI 2.1-4.5) for pack-years smoked, 2.5(1.5-4.0) for alcohol intake, and 1.6(1.1-2.6) for plasma triglycerides. Corresponding values versus those without the baseline disease were 12.6 (7.9-20.2) for acute pancreatitis, 1.9 (1.2-2.8) for gallstone disease, and 1.9 (1.3-2.7) for diabetes mellitus. The highest population attributable fractions were for women (1) ever smoking (31%), (2) gallstone disease (5%), and (3) diabetes mellitus (4%), and for men (1) ever smoking (38%), (2) acute pancreatitis (7%)/high alcohol intake (7%), and (3) high plasma triglycerides (5%). Smoking is the most important risk factor for chronic pancreatitis in the general population.