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Published on: July 21, 2023
Exchange rate volatility, corruption, and economic growth
Josefa Ramoni-Perazzi1, Héctor Romero1
1Escuela de Economía y Administración, Universidad Industrial de Santander, Colombia.
Exchange rate volatility negatively impacts economic growth. This effect is less pronounced in countries with higher corruption levels, suggesting adaptation to economic instability.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- International Finance
- Development Economics
Background:
- Exchange rate volatility poses risks to economic stability and growth.
- Understanding its impact across different governance structures is crucial for policy-making.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth.
- To investigate how corruption levels moderate this relationship.
Main Methods:
- Dynamic panel data models were employed for 194 countries (1995-2019).
- Exchange rate volatility was estimated using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models.
- Difference and System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators were utilized.
Main Results:
- A significant negative relationship was found between exchange rate volatility and economic growth.
- The negative impact of volatility on growth decreases with financial system development.
- The adverse effect of volatility on economic growth is lower in countries with high corruption.
Conclusions:
- Exchange rate volatility is detrimental to economic growth, particularly in financially developed economies.
- High corruption levels may mitigate the negative impact of exchange rate volatility, possibly due to institutional adaptation to instability.
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