Prediction of postoperative infection in elderly using deep learning-based analysis: an observational cohort study

Elderly patients are susceptible to postoperative infections with increased mortality. Analyzing with a deep learning model, the perioperative factors that could predict and/or contribute to postoperative infections may improve the outcome in elderly. This was an observational cohort study with 2014 elderly patients who had elective surgery from 28 hospitals in China from April to June 2014. We aimed to develop and validate deep learning-based predictive models for postoperative infections in the elderly. 1510 patients were randomly assigned to be training dataset for establishing deep learning-based models, and 504 patients were used to validate the effectiveness of these models. The conventional model predicted postoperative infections was 0.728 (95% CI 0.688-0.768) with the sensitivity of 66.2% (95% CI 58.2-73.6) and specificity of 66.8% (95% CI 64.6-68.9). The deep learning model including risk factors relevant to baseline clinical characteristics predicted postoperative infections was 0.641 (95% CI 0.545-0.737), and sensitivity and specificity were 34.2% (95% CI 19.6-51.4) and 88.8% (95% CI 85.6-91.6), respectively. Including risk factors relevant to baseline variables and surgery, the deep learning model predicted postoperative infections was 0.763 (95% CI 0.681-0.844) with the sensitivity of 63.2% (95% CI 46-78.2) and specificity of 80.5% (95% CI 76.6-84). Our feasibility study indicated that a deep learning model including risk factors for the prediction of postoperative infections can be achieved in elderly. Further study is needed to assess whether this model can be used to guide clinical practice to improve surgical outcomes in elderly.