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Probabilistic Forecasts Using Expert Judgment: The Road to Recovery From COVID-19
George Athanasopoulos1, Rob J Hyndman1, Nikolaos Kourentzes2
1Monash University, Caulfield East, VIC, Australia.
Journal of Travel Research
|January 6, 2023
Summary
This study introduces a new statistical method for tourism recovery forecasting post-COVID-19. It uses expert surveys to create optimistic, most-likely, and pessimistic scenarios for industry recovery.
Area of Science:
- Econometrics
- Tourism Studies
- Statistical Modeling
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted global tourism, necessitating clear recovery strategies.
- Policymakers require data-driven insights to navigate the post-pandemic tourism landscape.
- International and domestic travel faced unprecedented disruptions due to border closures and lockdowns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a novel statistical methodology for scenario-based probabilistic tourism recovery forecasts.
- To provide policymakers with tools to visualize and estimate the impact of the pandemic on tourism.
- To contrast projected recovery paths against COVID-free counterfactual scenarios.
Main Methods:
- A large-scale survey of 443 tourism experts and stakeholders was conducted.
- A statistical methodology combining forecast reconciliation and forecast combinations was employed.
- Historical tourism data was utilized to generate robust COVID-free counterfactual forecasts.
Main Results:
- Scenario-based probabilistic forecasts were generated, outlining pessimistic, most-likely, and optimistic recovery paths.
- The methodology leveraged the aggregation structure of tourism data by geographic location and travel purpose.
- Empirical application in Australia analyzed international arrivals and domestic tourism flows.
Conclusions:
- The proposed methodology offers a robust framework for understanding and forecasting tourism recovery.
- The generated forecasts enable policymakers to strategize for a resilient tourism industry.
- This approach quantifies the expected effects of the pandemic on tourism recovery trajectories.
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