Long-term dynamics and drivers of particulate phosphorus concentration in eutrophic lake Chaohu, China

Particulate phosphorus (PP) plays an important biological role in the eutrophication process, and is thus an important water quality parameter for assessing climatic change and anthropogenic activity factors that affect aquatic ecosystems. Here, we used 20-year Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data to explore the patterns and trends of PP concentration (C_PP) in eutrophic Lake Chaohu based on a new empirical model. The validation results indicated that the developed model performed satisfactorily in estimating C_PP, with a mean absolute percentage error of 31.89% and root mean square error of 0.022 mg/L. Long-term MODIS observations (2000-2019) revealed that the C_PP of Lake Chaohu has experienced an overall increasing trend and distinct spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The driving factor analysis revealed that the chemical fertilizer consumption, municipal wastewater, industrial sewage, precipitation, and air temperature were the five potential driving factors and collectively explained more than 81% of the long-term variation in C_PP. This study provides the long-term datasets of C_PP in inland waters and new insights for future water eutrophication control and restoration efforts.