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Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems
Published on: June 30, 2020
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Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming
Yanlei Feng1, Robinson I Negrón-Juárez2, David M Romps2,3
1Department of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA. ylfeng@berkeley.edu.
Nature Communications
|January 7, 2023
Summary
Amazonian forests face increased windthrow risk due to severe convective storms. Our study links storm energy to tree mortality, projecting a significant rise in storm-prone areas and windthrow density by 2100 under high emissions.
Area of Science:
- Climatology and Tropical Ecology
- Earth System Science
Background:
- Convective storms (windthrow) are a major cause of forest mortality in the Amazon.
- The connection between atmospheric convective storms and surface-level windthrows is not well understood.
- Existing Earth system models (ESMs) do not mechanistically link convective wind events to tree mortality.
Purpose of the Study:
- To establish an empirical relationship between convective available potential energy and the spatial patterns of large windthrow events in the Amazon.
- To connect atmospheric storm dynamics with Amazonian forest dynamics.
- To project future changes in windthrow risk under climate change scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Developed an empirical relationship mapping convective available potential energy (simulated by ESMs) to windthrow patterns.
- Utilized climate model projections under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585).
Main Results:
- Identified a quantifiable link between convective storm energy and windthrow occurrence.
- Projected a 51% increase in areas prone to extreme storms in the Amazon by 2100.
- Projected a 43% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of the century.
Conclusions:
- Climate change is expected to intensify convective storms, increasing forest mortality via windthrow in the Amazon.
- These changes will significantly impact tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics.
- The established relationship provides a crucial link for improving ESMs and understanding forest-climate interactions.
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