The CAPRA&PDE4D5/7/9 Prognostic Model Is Significantly Associated with Adverse Post-Surgical Pathology Outcomes

Objectives: To investigate the association of the prognostic risk score CAPRA&PDE4D5/7/9 as measured on pre-surgical diagnostic needle biopsy tissue with pathological outcomes after radical prostatectomies in a clinically low−intermediate-risk patient cohort. Patients and Methods: RNA was extracted from biopsy punches of diagnostic needle biopsies. The patient cohort comprises n = 151 patients; of those n = 84 had low−intermediate clinical risk based on the CAPRA score and DRE clinical stage 2, or pathological pT stage > pT3a, or tumor penetrated prostate capsular status, or pN1 disease); (ii) any ISUP pathological Gleason >2; (iii) any ISUP pathological Gleason >1. In the n = 84 patients with low to intermediate clinical risk profiles, the clinical-genomics CAPRA&PDE4D5/7/9_BCR risk score was significantly lower in patients with favorable vs. unfavorable outcomes. In univariable logistic regression modeling the genomics PDE4D5/7/9_BCR as well as the clinical-genomics CAPRA&PDE4D5/7/9_BCR combination model were significantly associated with all three post-surgical pathology outcomes (p = 0.02, p = 0.0004, p = 0.04; and p = 0.01, p = 0.0002, p = 0.01, respectively). The clinically used PRIAS criteria for the selection of low-risk candidate patients for active surveillance (AS) were not significantly associated with any of the three tested post-operative pathology outcomes (p = 0.3, p = 0.1, p = 0.1, respectively). In multivariable analysis adjusted for the CAPRA score, the genomics PDE4D5/7/9_BCR risk score remained significant for the outcomes of adverse pathology (p = 0.04) and ISUP pathological Gleason >2 (p = 0.004). The negative predictive value of the CAPRA&PDE4D5/7/9_BCR risk score using the low-risk cut-off (0.1) for the three pathological endpoints was 82.0%, 100%, and 59.1%, respectively for a selected low-risk cohort of n = 22 patients (26.2% of the entire cohort) compared to 72.1%, 94.4%, and 55.6% for n = 18 low-risk patients (21.4% of the total cohort) selected based on the PRIAS inclusion criteria. Conclusion: In this study, we have shown that the previously reported clinical-genomics prostate cancer risk model CAPRA&PDE4D5/7/9_BCR which was developed to predict biological outcomes after surgery of primary prostate cancer is also significantly associated with post-surgical pathology outcomes. The risk score predicts adverse pathology independent of the clinical risk metrics. Compared to clinically used active surveillance inclusion criteria, the clinical-genomics CAPRA&PDE4D5/7/9_BCR risk model selects 22% (n = 8) more low-risk patients with higher negative predictive value to experience unfavorable post-operative pathology outcomes.