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Characterization of Complex Systems Using the Design of Experiments Approach: Transient Protein Expression in Tobacco as a Case Study

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Synthetic Control Method for Dutch Policy Evaluation.

Nils Verheuvel¹, Joost Witteman¹, Marilou Vlaanderen¹

¹SEO Amsterdam Economics, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

De Economist

|January 9, 2023

Summary

Introducing funding policy uncertainty did not increase Dutch government debt risk premiums. The synthetic control method proved more reliable than difference-in-differences for this analysis.

Keywords:

Comparative methods Policy evaluation Risk premia Sovereign debt management Synthetic control method

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Area of Science:

Economics
Econometrics

Background:

Government debt management and risk premiums are critical for fiscal policy.
Assessing the impact of funding strategy changes requires robust empirical methods.

Purpose of the Study:

To empirically evaluate the effect of the Dutch State Treasury Agency's funding policy changes on market conditions.
To compare the suitability of the synthetic control method versus difference-in-differences for this specific case study.

Main Methods:

Application of the synthetic control method to a Dutch State Treasury Agency funding policy case study.
Comparison with the difference-in-differences method, highlighting the importance of control unit selection.
Conducting time and unit placebo tests to assess the robustness of the findings.

Main Results:

Increased uncertainty in funding policy, via a target range for issuances, did not elevate the risk premium on Dutch government debt.
The synthetic control method and constrained regression provided more reliable estimates than difference-in-differences.
Difference-in-differences results were found to be non-robust under placebo tests, unlike synthetic control.

Conclusions:

The synthetic control method is a more appropriate tool than difference-in-differences for analyzing this specific Dutch funding policy case.
Funding policy uncertainty, as implemented, did not negatively impact the risk premium of Dutch government debt.