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Published on: January 22, 2019
Development and Validation of a Simple Nomogram for Predicting Rapid Myopia Progression in Children with
Ying Huang1, Xinyue Li1, Wangyi Fang1
1Department of Ophthalmology, Shanghai Children's Hospital, School of medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, China.
Insights
A new nomogram and online calculator can predict rapid myopia progression in children using orthokeratology (ortho-k). This tool aids in early intervention and enhanced monitoring for myopia management.
Area of Science:
- Ophthalmology
- Pediatric Medicine
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Myopia progression in children requires effective management strategies.
- Orthokeratology (ortho-k) is a common method for myopia control.
- Predicting rapid progression is crucial for timely intervention.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a nomogram and online calculator for predicting rapid myopia progression risk.
- To identify key predictors of rapid myopia progression in children undergoing ortho-k treatment.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 560 myopia patients (1051 eyes) treated with ortho-k.
- Screening of 11 potential predictors using univariable and stepwise logistic regression.
- Internal validation of the final predictive model.
Main Results:
- A nomogram incorporating age, baseline spherical equivalent, pupil diameter, and horizontal visible iris diameter was developed.
- The model achieved a concordance statistic of 0.705 in the training cohort and 0.707 in the validation cohort.
- An online calculator is available for public use.
Conclusions:
- A user-friendly nomogram and online calculator effectively predict rapid myopia progression risk in children treated with ortho-k.
- These tools can facilitate early intervention and improved surveillance for pediatric myopia.
Purpose:
To develop and validate an ideal nomogram and an online calculator for predicting rapid myopia progression risk in children managed with orthokeratology (ortho-k).
Methods:
Data of children undergoing ortho-k treatment at Shanghai Children's Hospitals between January 2018 and April 2021 were retrospectively assessed. Potential predictors were screened using univariable analyses and a bidirectional stepwise procedure based on Akaike's information criterion. The final model was constructed using multivariable logistic regression and validated using an internal validation cohort. A nomogram and an online calculator were used to present the final model.
Results:
In this retrospective study with 1051 eyes of 560 myopia patients, the training cohort included 735 eyes, and the validation cohort included 316 eyes. Among 11 potential predictors of rapid myopia progression considered, the following four variables identified as independent predictive factors were included in the nomogram: age (odds ratio [OR], 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61-0.79), baseline spherical equivalent (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.31-1.79), pupil diameter (OR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.32-0.97), and horizontal visible iris diameter (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.33-0.97). The mean concordance statistics for the training and validation cohorts were 0.705 (95% CI 0.664-0.747) and 0.707 (95% CI 0.639-0.774), respectively. The online calculator is publicly available (https://hycalculatoronline.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/).
Conclusion:
This study developed a simple-to-use nomogram and online calculator that predicted rapid myopia progression risk in children treated with ortho-k, who will likely benefit from early intervention and improved surveillance.
