[Correlates and predictors of the age of menarche]

In a cross-sectional study of 452 girls between 10 and 16 years of age 36 indices of physical and 50 of mental development were tested for their correlation with age at menarche and chronological age, as well as for their predictive power for estimating menarche by multiple regression analysis. Indices of physical maturity and body weight when adjusted for chronological age showed the highest partial correlation coefficients with age at menarche. Among mental characters which show lower intercorrelations with menarche occurred the highest correlation coefficients for a handmotor factor "Spurennachzeichnen" and a factor "Gruppenabhängigkeit" (which indicates a type of social motivation). In general physical and mental factors correlate higher with chronological age than with age at menarche. By multiple regression analysis we determined 14 physical and 25 mental predictors explaining 21% and 17% respectively of the variance of age at menarche. The error of the estimate predicting menarche on body weight without knowledge of onset of menarche is +/- 1 year. Using chronological age in a sample of girls before menarche the error of the estimate only is +/- 6 months. To compare the predictive power of chronological age combined with body weight or with skeletal age the time interval is calculated within which 95% of girls attain menarche. The range of prediction extends from 4.3 to 1 year on chronological age (11-16 years); using mean body weight it can be improved by 1.8 to 6 months, while using mean skeletal age an improvement of 0.2 to 3.9 months is possible compared with body weight. The correlations between age at menarche and physical and mental variables are attributed to a common hormonal influence on rate of development.