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Large-Scale SARS-CoV-2 Testing Utilizing Saliva and Transposition Sample Pooling
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Contact tracing & super-spreaders in the branching-process model.

Johannes Müller1,2, Volker Hösel3

  • 1Center for Mathematics, Technische Universität München, 85748, Garching, Germany. johannes.mueller@mytum.de.

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|January 10, 2023
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Summary

Super-spreader events can impact airborne infection spread. Contact tracing remains effective with super-spreaders under specific conditions, like a small symptomatic fraction or high tracing probability, as seen in SARS-CoV-2.

Keywords:
Branching processContact tracingEpidemic processSuper-spreader

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Disease Dynamics
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Super-spreader events significantly influence the transmission of airborne infectious diseases.
  • Traditional models often focus on contact networks, but synchronous infections in single events are also crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate a novel model for super-spreader events based on random contact rates.
  • To analyze the impact of super-spreader events on the effectiveness of contact tracing using a branching-process approach.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a new model for super-spreader events considering random contact rates.
  • Applied branching-process theory to model contact tracing without a tracing delay.
  • Conducted numerical analysis using parameters relevant to SARS-CoV-2.

Main Results:

  • Contact tracing efficacy with super-spreaders depends on factors like the fraction of symptomatic individuals, tracing probability, and the ratio of latency to incubation periods.
  • Super-spreader events can decrease contact tracing effectiveness in certain scenarios.
  • For SARS-CoV-2, super-spreader events were found not to crucially diminish the impact of contact tracing.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides insights into the complex interplay between super-spreader events and public health interventions like contact tracing.
  • Understanding these dynamics is vital for optimizing strategies against airborne infectious diseases.
  • The findings suggest that contact tracing can remain a valuable tool even in the presence of super-spreader phenomena, particularly for infections like SARS-CoV-2.