Process mining for healthcare decision analytics with micro-costing estimations

Managing constrained healthcare resources is an important and inescapable role of healthcare decision makers. Allocative decisions are based on downstream consequences of changes to care processes: judging whether the costs involved are offset by the magnitude of the consequences, and therefore whether the change represents value for money. Process mining techniques can inform such decisions by quantitatively discovering, comparing and detailing care processes using recorded data, however the scope of techniques typically excludes anything 'after-the-process' i.e., their accumulated costs and resulting consequences. Cost considerations are increasingly incorporated into process mining techniques, but the majority of healthcare costs for service and overhead components are commonly apportioned and recorded at the patient (trace) level, hiding event level detail. Within decision-analysis, event-driven and individual-level simulation models are sometimes used to forecast the expected downstream consequences of process changes, but are expensive to manually operationalise. In this paper, we address both of these gaps within and between process mining and decision analytics, by better linking them together. In particular, we introduce a new type of process model containing trace data that can be used in individual-level or cohort-level decision-analytical model building. Furthermore, we enhance these models with process-based micro-costing estimations. The approach was evaluated with health economics and decision modelling experts, with discussion centred on how the outputs could be used, and how similar information would otherwise be compiled.