Active surveillance is an excellent management technique for identifying patients with progressive low-risk papillary...

Although the outcomes of active surveillance (AS) for low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) are generally excellent, some patients undergo conversion surgery for various reasons, including disease progression. We studied the outcomes of PTMC patients who underwent AS, who underwent conversion surgery after AS, and who underwent immediate surgery. Between 2005 and 2019, 4,635 patients were diagnosed with low-risk cT1aN0M0 PTMC at Kuma Hospital: 2,896 opted for AS (AS group) and 1,739 underwent immediate surgery (Surgery group). In the AS group, 242 patients underwent conversion surgery (Conversion group): 72 owing to disease progression (Conversion-prog group) and 170 for other reasons (Conversion-non-prog group). Of the 1,739 patients in the Surgery group, 1,625 had no high-risk features (Surgery-low-risk group). Locoregional recurrence (LRR) occurred in 9, 1, 1, and 0 patient in the Surgery-low-risk group, the Conversion-prog group, the AS group, and the Conversion-non-prog group, respectively. The LRR rate of the AS group was significantly lower than that of the Surgery-low-risk group (0.1% vs. 0.7% at 10 years, p = 0.006). Additionally, the LRR rate of the Conversion group (0.6% at 10 years, p = 0.741) and that of the Conversion-prog group (3.3% at 10 years, p = 0.103) did not significantly differ from the LRR of the Surgery-low-risk group. As the postoperative prognosis of patients with progressive PTMC who underwent conversion surgery did not significantly differ from that of patients who underwent immediate surgery, we think that AS may have resulted in efficient identification of the small proportion of patients with progressive PTMC that require surgical treatment.