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How does population aging affect carbon emissions?-analysis based on the multiple mediation effect model.

Yitao Feng1, Huaan Wu2,3, Yuhua Jin1

  • 1Research Center for Economy of Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, 400067, China.

Environmental Science and Pollution Research International
|January 12, 2023
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Population aging significantly reduces carbon dioxide emissions in China. This effect is mediated by technological progress, industrial structure, and consumption patterns, highlighting aging

Keywords:
Carbon emissionsMultiple mediation effect modelPopulation agingTransmission mechanism

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Demography
  • Economics

Background:

  • China's rapidly aging population presents complex challenges and opportunities for environmental policy.
  • Understanding the relationship between demographic shifts and carbon emissions is crucial for sustainable development.
  • Existing research often overlooks the nuanced mechanisms through which population aging influences carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the effect mechanism of population aging on carbon dioxide emissions in China.
  • To examine the mediating roles of technological progress, industrial structure, consumption level, and consumption structure.
  • To provide policy recommendations for achieving emission peak and carbon neutrality in an aging society.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized provincial panel data from China spanning 2005 to 2019.
  • Employed a multiple mediating effect model with stepwise regression and Sobel tests.
  • Conducted heterogeneity and robustness tests to validate findings across regions and methods.

Main Results:

  • Population aging demonstrates a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions.
  • Technological progress, industrial structure, consumption level, and consumption structure act as significant mediators.
  • Regional variations exist, with mediating effects differing across eastern, central, and western China.

Conclusions:

  • Population aging is a key factor in mitigating carbon emissions in China.
  • Policy interventions should consider the mediating pathways through technological advancement and structural economic changes.
  • China must integrate the impacts of an aging population into its strategies for emission reduction and carbon neutrality goals.