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Assessing ExxonMobil's global warming projections.

G Supran1, S Rahmstorf2,3, N Oreskes1,4

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Fossil fuel company ExxonMobil accurately predicted global warming trends from 1977-2003, matching independent models. However, their public statements contradicted their own climate science data.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate science
  • Environmental science
  • Energy industry analysis

Background:

  • The fossil fuel industry's internal climate change predictions have not been previously evaluated.
  • Understanding corporate climate projections is crucial for assessing historical climate science communication.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantitatively assess global warming projections made by Exxon and ExxonMobil scientists from 1977 to 2003.
  • To compare the accuracy and skill of ExxonMobil's climate models with independent academic and governmental models.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of internal company records and scientific documentation from Exxon and ExxonMobil.
  • Quantitative evaluation of climate projections, including global warming forecasts and detection timelines.
  • Comparison of corporate projections against subsequent observational data and independent climate models.

Main Results:

  • ExxonMobil's internal climate projections accurately forecasted global warming consistent with observations.
  • The company's predictions were as skillful as those from independent academic and government climate models.
  • ExxonMobil scientists correctly anticipated the detection of human-caused global warming and estimated the carbon budget for limiting warming to 2°C.

Conclusions:

  • ExxonMobil possessed accurate internal climate change knowledge and predictive capabilities.
  • A significant discrepancy existed between ExxonMobil's internal scientific data and its public communications on climate change.