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Assessment and prediction of index based agricultural drought vulnerability using machine learning algorithms
Abdulla-Al Kafy1, Arpita Bakshi2, Milan Saha3
1Department of Geography & the Environment, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA.
The Science of the Total Environment
|January 12, 2023
Summary
Drought severity in Bangladesh's Barind Tract is increasing due to reduced vegetation and water, and higher temperatures. This study predicts worsening drought conditions, highlighting the need for preparedness measures.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Remote Sensing
- Climate Change Studies
Background:
- Droughts severely impact ecosystems, water resources, public health, and economies.
- Remote sensing offers effective methods for monitoring drought severity and its widespread effects.
- The Barind Tract (BT) in Bangladesh is a semi-arid, hot region highly susceptible to droughts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess and predict drought vulnerability in the Barind Tract using satellite imagery.
- To analyze drought severity trends from 1996 to 2021 and project future conditions up to 2031.
- To utilize various remote sensing indices and predictive algorithms for comprehensive drought analysis.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Landsat satellite images from 1996 to 2031 for the Barind Tract.
- Calculated key indices: NDVI, MNDWI, SMC, TCI, VCI, and VHI.
- Employed Cellular Automata (CA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithms to predict drought severity for 2026 and 2031 based on VCI and TCI.
Main Results:
- Observed an increase in drought severity (DS) from 1996-2021, marked by a 19% decrease in healthy vegetation and a 26% reduction in surface water.
- Recorded a significant rise in extreme drought conditions, from 2% in 1996 to 7% in 2021, alongside a >5°C temperature increase.
- Projected a substantial expansion of extreme and severe drought conditions by 2026 (15% and 13%) and 2031 (18% and 24%).
Conclusions:
- Drought conditions in the Barind Tract are intensifying, driven by environmental degradation and climate change.
- Future projections indicate a significant worsening of drought severity, posing considerable risks to the region.
- Findings underscore the critical need for proactive planning and mitigation strategies to enhance community resilience to drought vulnerability.
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