Bayes' Theorem in Neurocritical Care: Principles and Practice

Patients with critical neurological illness are diverse. As a result of the heterogeneity of this patient population, standardized approaches to patient management might not confer benefit. A precision medicine approach to neurocritical care is therefore urgently needed to improve our understanding of neurocritical illness and the care provided to this vulnerable cohort. Research designs and approaches based on Bayesian models have the potential to meet this need, as they are specifically designed to evolve with emerging evidence. This adaptability provides a benefit over the popular frequentist statistical approach, as it provides a way of adjusting hypotheses and trial procedures to maximize efficacy. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge on Bayes' theorem, and its potential applications to the field of neurocritical care. We review the basic principles underlying Bayes' theorem, compare the use of Bayesian versus frequentist statistics in medicine, and discuss the relevance of Bayesian statistics to the field of neuroscience and to clinical research. Finally, we explore the potential benefits of employing Bayesian methods within the field of neurocritical care as a steppingstone toward implementing precision medicine approaches to improve patient outcomes for complex, heterogeneous disorders.