A systematic procedure for incorporating separable static heterogeneity into compartmental epidemic models

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Infectious Disease Modeling

Background:

• Compartmental epidemic models are foundational for understanding disease spread.
• Incorporating population heterogeneity is crucial for realistic epidemic simulations.
• Existing models may not adequately capture static heterogeneity without dimensional increase.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present a novel method for modifying compartmental epidemic models.
• To integrate separable static heterogeneity without altering model dimensions.
• To provide a framework for more accurate infectious disease dynamics.

Main Methods:

• Derivation based on the Kermack-McKendrick renewal equation.
• Modification of a standard compartmental model structure.
• Ensuring preservation of the model's state-space dimension.

Main Results:

• A modified compartmental model framework accounting for separable static heterogeneity.
• Demonstration that model dimension is preserved post-modification.
• The method provides a tractable approach for heterogeneity incorporation.

Conclusions:

• The proposed modification offers a parsimonious way to include heterogeneity in epidemic models.
• This approach enhances the realism of infectious disease modeling.
• Facilitates better predictions of epidemic trajectories in diverse populations.