Air quality improvement through vehicle electrification in Hainan province, China

To improve the ecological environment, provinces in China have set ambitious goals for the electrification of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles (FVs) and the promotion of electric vehicles (EVs). Hainan is the first province to propose a clean energy target that schedules the banning of new FVs sales from 2030. Therefore, Hainan is a good case study to illustrate how this policy might improve regional air quality over the coming years. This study first developed an anthropogenic emission inventory of seven major air pollutants in 2017 in Hainan. The total emissions of CO, NOx, NH₃, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 and SO₂ in 2017 were estimated as 247.56, 69.61, 61.87, 41.38, 37.02, 19.82, and 8.55 kt, respectively. Using the developed emission inventory, multiple scenarios of economic development were considered to assess the benefits to air quality from Hainan's goal of electrification. In comparison with 2017, the reductions in emissions of SO₂, NOx, CO, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, VOCs, and NH₃ by 2045 were projected to be 5.45 (11.11%), 275.07 (57.32%), 675.51 (34.07%), 8.39 (5.73%), 7.73 (8.24%), 81.15 (9.76%), and 4.89 (0.91%) kt, respectively, under the all-electric vehicle scenarios. These results indicate that this policy will not only reduce the emission of air pollutants but also avoid complex O₃ pollution in the future. The findings of this work elucidate the effects of vehicle electrification policies on regional air quality and provide scientific support for policymakers in developing pollution control strategies.