Variable effects of vegetation characteristics on a recreation service depending on natural and social environment

In this study, we examined roles of three vegetation characteristics in provisioning of a recreation service by applying a machine-learning method to 4,708,229 spatially-explicit records of hiking activity in Japan. Then, expected impacts of land-use changes assessed and mapped based on the model. Associations between a recreation service and three vegetation characteristics were considerably variable depending on the social and natural environment such as accessibility and altitude. As a consequence, expected impacts of unit changes in vegetation characteristics on the service flow were considerably heterogeneous throughout the study area. The signs (positive or negative) of the impact can be reversed depending on the contexts even among nearby sites. Such notable but variable contributions of vegetation on a recreation service should be carefully reflected in landscape management. Even moderate changes in either the quantity or quality of vegetation can have a considerable impact on the frequency of hiking activity. Landscape management for promotion of the recreation service should be carefully designed for each locality on the grounds of the context-dependent effects of vegetation.