Persistence or regression of prediabetes and coronary artery calcification among adults without diabetes

The effect of changes in glycemic status on subclinical atherosclerosis is uncertain. We assessed the association of persistence, regression, or progression of prediabetes with coronary artery calcium score (CACS) as a measure of subclinical atherosclerosis.

A cross-sectional study, comprising 126 765 adults, and longitudinal sub-study, comprising 40 622 adults (with baseline and at least 1 follow-up computed tomography scan to assess changes in CACS), were undertaken.

Changes in glycemic status over 1.5 years (interquartile range, 1.0-2.0) before the first CACS assessment were categorized according to 6 groups: persistent normoglycemia (reference), normoglycemia to prediabetes, normoglycemia to diabetes, prediabetes to normoglycemia, persistent prediabetes, and prediabetes to diabetes. Logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for prevalent coronary artery calcification (CAC). Mixed models with random intercepts and random slopes were used to estimate 5-year CAC progression rates.

Mean (SD) age was 41.3 (7.0) years (74.7% male) (n = 126 765). Multivariable-adjusted OR for prevalent CAC was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.08-1.18) for persistent prediabetes, 1.05 (0.98-1.12) for regression to normoglycemia, and 1.46 (95% CI, 1.27-1.67) for progression from prediabetes to diabetes, compared with persistent normoglycemia. Coronary artery calcification progression increased significantly in all prediabetes groups. Multivariable-adjusted ratio of 5-year CAC progression rates was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.16-1.22) (persistent prediabetes), 1.11 (1.07-1.14) (regression to normoglycemia), and 1.63 (95% CI, 1.26-2.10) (progression from prediabetes to diabetes).

Unfavorable changes in glycemic status, including persistence of prediabetes or progression to diabetes from prediabetes, were associated with increased risk of CAC.