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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Biology
  • Conservation Science

Background:

  • Extreme thermal events are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity globally.
  • The consequences of temperature extremes on biological systems are significant, yet global exposure data for species is lacking.
  • Understanding species and location vulnerability to future thermal extremes is critical for conservation efforts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To provide a comprehensive global assessment of future extreme thermal event exposure for land vertebrates.
  • To quantify the percentage of land vertebrate species and their distributions at risk under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
  • To identify geographical regions and biomes most vulnerable to future extreme thermal events.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized daily maximum temperature data from 1950 to 2099 to model future thermal extremes.
  • Assessed exposure levels for mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles across different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios.
  • Quantified the proportion of species' distributions and the duration of exposure to extreme thermal events by 2099.

Main Results:

  • Under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), 41% of land vertebrates face exposure beyond historical levels in at least half their distribution by 2099.
  • Amphibians (55.5%) and reptiles (51.0%) show the highest projected exposure, followed by mammals (31.1%) and birds (25.8%).
  • Mid-latitude biomes (desert, shrubland, grassland) are projected to experience more severe exposure than tropical regions.

Conclusions:

  • Future extreme thermal events pose a significant threat to global biodiversity, potentially causing constant severe thermal stress for many species.
  • A low-emission future (SSP1-2.6) can substantially reduce vertebrate exposure, preventing severe impacts in many species assemblages.
  • Deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are urgently required to mitigate the widespread exposure of land vertebrates to extreme thermal stress.