Geographical distribution and predict potential distribution of Cerasus serrulata

Climate change is closely related to the distribution of plant resources. Cerasus serrulata is an important plant resource in China. The study on the influence of environmental factors on the distribution of suitable areas of C. serrulata is conducive to the protection and development of C. serrulata. In this paper, the distribution information of 238 Chinese Cerasus serrulata plants was processed by DIVA-GIS. The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the current and future distribution, and the ecological distribution and richness of Cerasus were analyzed. The results showed that the Cerasus serrulata was widely distributed in Hebei, Heilongjiang, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces, mainly in the low and middle elevation areas of 10 to 1200 m. Based on this model, the precipitation of the warmest quarter, the precipitation of the driest month, and the mean temperature of the coldest were the most significant bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of C. serrulata. In the future, climate change may lead to a slight increase of 2.31% in the area of suitable habitat for Cerasus serrulata, while the optimal habitat will decrease from 20.81 to 14.55%. Therefore, conservation measures should be taken to protect these precious resources.