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Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Application of reaction-diffusion equations for modeling human and breeding site attraction movement behavior of
Otto Richter1, Anh Nguyen2,3, Truc Nguyen3,4
1Institute of Geoecology, Technical University of Braunschweig, Langer Kamp 19c, D38106 Braunschweig, Germany.
Abstract:
This paper shows how biological population dynamic models in the form of coupled reaction-diffusion equations with nonlinear reaction terms can be applied to heterogeneous landscapes. The presented systems of coupled partial differential equations (PDEs) combine the dispersal of disease-vector mosquitoes and the spread of the disease in a human population. Realistic biological dispersal behavior is taken into account by applying chemotaxis terms for the attraction to the human host and the attraction of suitable breeding sites. These terms are capable of generating the complex active movement patterns of mosquitoes along the gradients of the attractants. The nonlinear initial boundary value problems are solved numerically for geometries of heterogeneous landscapes, which have been imported from geographic information system data to construct a general-purpose finite-element solver for systems of coupled PDEs. The method is applied to the dispersal of the dengue disease vector for Aedes aegypti in a small-scale rural setting consisting of small houses and different breeding sites, and to a large-scale section of the suburban zone of a metropolitan area in Vietnam. Numerical simulations illustrate how the setup of model equations and geographic information can be used for the assessment of control measures, including the spraying patterns of pesticides and biological control by inducing male sterility.

