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Future extreme climate changes linked to global warming intensity.

Xiaoxin Wang1, Dabang Jiang2, Xianmei Lang3

  • 1Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.

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|January 20, 2023
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Future global warming under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario will increase extreme temperatures and precipitation events. Cold extremes are more sensitive to warming than warm extremes, with nonlinear changes observed after 3°C warming.

Keywords:
Climate extremesGlobal warmingLinkageProjectionUncertainty

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Science
  • Meteorology

Background:

  • The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) provides crucial data for understanding climate change.
  • Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) offer standardized scenarios for future greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Investigating terrestrial extreme climate changes is vital for adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze projected changes in terrestrial extreme climate events under sustained global warming.
  • To assess the sensitivity of temperature and precipitation extremes to increasing global mean temperatures.
  • To compare model uncertainties in projecting temperature versus precipitation extremes.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizing the CMIP5 daily dataset for climate change analysis.
  • Employing the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for future projections.
  • Statistical analysis of extreme temperature, precipitation, and dry spell indices.

Main Results:

  • Significant increases in extreme temperatures, precipitation, and dry spells are projected for the 21st century.
  • Cold extremes show greater sensitivity to global warming than warm extremes.
  • Nonlinear relationships observed between global warming and certain temperature extremes (e.g., cold nights, days) after 3°C warming.

Conclusions:

  • Global warming under RCP8.5 will lead to more frequent and intense terrestrial extreme climate events.
  • Temperature extremes exhibit a stronger linear relationship with global mean temperature changes compared to precipitation extremes.
  • Model uncertainty in projecting precipitation extremes increases notably beyond 5°C global warming.