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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Aug 13, 2025

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Published on: March 31, 2023

Future changes in coverage of 1.5°C and 2°C warming thresholds.

Di Tian¹, Wenjie Dong², Han Zhang³

¹State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Hangzhou 310012, China.

Science Bulletin

|January 20, 2023

Summary

Global warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C thresholds will be crossed by most of the planet by 2100 under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Higher emissions (RCP8.5) lead to earlier and more widespread temperature increases.

Keywords:

1.5 °C threshold 2 °C threshold CMIP5 Coverage rate

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Last Updated: Aug 13, 2025

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Area of Science:

Climate Science
Earth System Science
Environmental Science

Background:

Global temperature rise is a critical issue.
Different emissions scenarios project varying degrees of future warming.
Understanding regional impacts of warming thresholds is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

To analyze the geographical areas and timing of 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming thresholds.
To compare these thresholds across different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
To assess the agreement among climate models.

Main Methods:

Analysis of 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models.
Assessment of near-surface air temperature changes under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5.
Determination of threshold-onset time (TOT) for warming.

Main Results:

Over 90% of the globe will exceed 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming by 2100 under RCP8.5.
Under RCP8.5, significant warming thresholds will be reached around 2050-2060 across most continents.
Europe+Russia and North America show the earliest onset times for 2°C warming.

Conclusions:

Future warming trajectories are highly dependent on emissions scenarios.
Widespread crossing of critical warming thresholds is projected, especially under higher emissions.
The timing of crossing 1.5°C warming is approximately 10-30 years earlier than 2.0°C warming.