Decoupling agriculture pollution and carbon reduction from economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta, China

Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy, and agricultural nonpoint source pollution and carbon emissions are the main environmental problems limiting the development of the agricultural economy. This study takes the Yangtze River Delta as the research object and measures agricultural carbon emissions and nonpoint source pollution in the study area from 2010 to 2020 respectively. The Tapio decoupling model is used to study types of decoupling between agricultural pollution and carbon reduction and economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2020, and the GM (1,1) model is used to predict the decoupling relationship between the agricultural environment and economic growth over the next ten years. The results show the following: (1) Agricultural COD emissions come mainly from livestock and poultry breeding, dropped from 1,130,120 tons in 2010 to 908,460 tons in 2020. Agricultural TN and TP emissions come mainly from plantations. Agricultural TN emissions dropped from 892,310 tons in 2010 to 788,020 tons in 2020. Agricultural TP emissions dropped from 149,590 tons in 2010 to130,770 tons in 2020. Agricultural carbon emissions dropped from 17,115,900 tons in 2010 to 15,786,600 tons in 2020, and come mainly from agricultural fertilizer and diesel fuel and pig breeding. (2) The decoupling effect of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the Yangtze River Delta and economic growth has been in a long-term state, with negative decoupling occurring in a few regions, mainly in 2011, 2014 and 2020. (3) In the next ten years, except for 2021, when the coordination between agricultural pollution reduction and economic growth is poor, the two show good decoupling in the remaining years. Based on the results, this study makes recommendations on how to carry out comprehensive environmental management and promote green agricultural development.