Simulating Hunting Effects on the Wild Boar Population and African Swine Fever Expansion Using Agent-Based Modeling.

Area of Science:

• Veterinary epidemiology
• Wildlife disease ecology
• Computational biology

Background:

• African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious viral disease impacting Suidae family animals.
• Global spread of ASF from Africa to Europe and Asia has caused significant economic losses in livestock and wildlife.
• Increasing wild boar infections in South Korea since 2019 necessitate novel control strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop an agent-based model (ABM) for estimating ASF spread.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of various infection control strategies, particularly hunting.
• To determine optimal hunting intensity for ASF management in wild boar populations.

Main Methods:

• An agent-based model (ABM) was developed to simulate wild boar behavior and movement.
• Simulations incorporated ecological and behavioral characteristics of wild boars.
• Annual hunting scenarios were applied over a three-year period (2019-2022) to assess impact on ASF expansion.

Main Results:

• Increased hunting intensity directly correlated with a reduced ASF expansion area.
• A 70% hunting intensity reduced the ASF expansion area significantly compared to 0% intensity.
• Hunting intensities above 70% showed minimal additional impact on reducing the expansion area.

Conclusions:

• An annual wild boar hunting intensity of 70% is recommended for effective ASF control.
• The ABM demonstrated that complete agent removal is achievable with sufficient hunting pressure.
• Sustained high-intensity hunting is critical for managing and potentially eradicating ASF in wild populations.