Trade for Food Security: The Stability of Global Agricultural Trade Networks

Global food production is facing increasing uncertainties under climate change and the coronavirus pandemic, provoking challenges and severe concerns to national food security. The role of global agricultural trade in bridging the imbalance between food supply and demand has come to the fore. However, the impact of multifaceted and dynamic factors, such as trade policies, national relations, and epidemics, on the stability of the agricultural trade network (ATN) needs to be better addressed. Quantitatively, this study estimated grouping characteristics and network stability by analyzing the changing global ATN from 1986 to 2018. We found that the evolution of global agricultural trade communities has gone through four stages: the dominance of the US-Asian community, the rise of the European-African community, the formation of tri-pillar communities, and the development of a multipolar community with a more complex structure. Despite witnessing a progressive increase in the nodal stability of the global ATN during the decades, particular gaps can still be found in stability across countries. Specifically, the European community achieved stability of 0.49 and its trade relations were effectively secured. Meanwhile, the remaining leading communities' stability shows a stable and upward trend, albeit with more significant challenges in trade relations among some of them. Therefore, how to guarantee the stability of trade relations and strengthen the global ATN to resist external shocks has become an essential question to safeguard global food security.