No Placebo Effect beyond Regression to the Mean on the Six Minute Walk Test in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Trials

In drug studies, patients are often included when the disease activity is high. This will make any treatment appear to lessen disease activity, although the improvement is biased by selection. This effect is known as regression towards the mean (RTM). We aimed at investigating drug trials in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) using the 6-minute walking distance test (6MWD) as a primary outcome for the phenomenon of RTM. An existing registry of 43 open label studies and 23 randomized controlled trials conducted between 1990 and 2009 was used as the data source. Data analysis was carried out for 18 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and 24 open label studies out of this registry. Data were analyzed for verum and placebo arms of the RCTs separately, as well as for the open label arms. In the verum arms, the overall effect given as 33.2 m (95% CI: 25.7; 40.6]); 6MWD was slightly lower than the effect in the observational studies, with 44.6 m (95% CI: [25.4; 63.8]). After studying and interpreting the data, we found that regression towards the mean plays only a minor role in PAH studies. In particular, placebo effects in the RCTs were negligibly small, with a mean 6MWD of -2.5 m (95% CI: [-9.8; 4.7]) in the placebo arm. Therefore, our analysis indicates that results of non-randomized observational studies can be regarded as valid tools for gaining valid clinical effects in patients with PAH.