Ensemble Machine-Learning-Based Prediction Models for the Compressive Strength of Recycled Powder Mortar

Recycled powder (RP) serves as a potential and prospective substitute for cementitious materials in concrete. The compressive strength of RP mortar is a pivotal factor affecting the mechanical properties of RP concrete. The application of machine learning (ML) approaches in the engineering problems, particularly for predicting the mechanical properties of construction materials, leads to high prediction accuracy and low experimental costs. In this study, 204 groups of RP mortar compression experimental data are collected from the literature to establish a dataset for ML, including 163 groups in the training set and 41 groups in the test set. Four ensemble ML models, namely eXtreme Gradient-Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), were selected to predict the compressive strength of RP mortar. The comparative results demonstrate that XGBoost has the highest prediction accuracy when the a10-index, MAE, RMSE and R² of the training set are 0.926, 1.596, 2.155 and 0.950 and the a10-index, MAE, RMSE and R² of the test set are 0.659, 3.182, 4.285 and 0.842, respectively. SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) is adopted to interpret the prediction process of XGBoost and explain the influence of influencing factors on the compressive strength of RP mortar. According to the importance of influencing factors, the order is the mass replacement rate of RP, the size of RP, the kind of RP and the water binder ratio of RP. The compressive strength of RP mortar decreases with the increase in the RP mass replacement rate. The compressive strength of RBP mortar is slightly higher than that of RCP mortar. Machine learning technologies will benefit the construction industry by facilitating the rapid and cost-effective evaluation of RP material properties.