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Vaccination Strategies against Seasonal Influenza in Long Term Care Setting: Lessons from a Mathematical Modelling

Matteo Ratti1, Diego Concina1, Maurizio Rinaldi2

  • 1Department of Translational Medicine (DiMeT), Università del Piemonte Orientale, 28100 Novara, Italy.

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Summary

Vaccinating nursing home residents is key to reducing seasonal influenza outbreaks, as resident vaccination significantly lowered illness rates. Healthcare worker vaccination had minimal impact on influenza transmission within these facilities.

Keywords:
health care workersinfluenzalong term care facilitiesmathematical modelling of infectious diseases

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Seasonal influenza poses a significant public health risk in European long-term care (LTC) facilities, affecting millions of elderly residents.
  • Despite vaccination campaigns, outbreaks in nursing homes remain a concern.
  • This study investigates influenza dynamics in a real-world Italian nursing home setting.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify optimal vaccination strategies for minimizing influenza cases and complications in nursing home residents.
  • To analyze the impact of vaccination parameters on influenza transmission within a LTC facility.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a hybrid mathematical model combining SEIR dynamics with a stochastic agent-based model.
  • Utilized contact matrices from surveys of healthcare workers (HCW) and residents.
  • Simulated various vaccination scenarios, varying HCW and resident vaccine uptake and efficacy.

Main Results:

  • The overall attack rate (AR) for influenza-like illness in the nursing home was 36.4%.
  • Increased vaccine uptake and efficacy in residents led to a slight decrease in AR across all wards.
  • Varying HCW vaccination parameters showed no significant impact on resident AR.

Conclusions:

  • Nursing homes remain high-risk environments for influenza transmission.
  • Resident vaccination is the most effective strategy for controlling influenza in LTC facilities.
  • Mathematical modeling integrating real-world data offers a promising approach for future public health interventions.