A Simple Epidemiologic Model for Predicting Impaired Neutralization of New SARS-CoV-2 Variants

This study is aimed at developing a simple epidemiologic model that could help predict the impaired neutralization of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. We explored the potential association between neutralization of recent and more prevalent SARS-CoV-2 sublineages belonging to the Omicron family (i.e., BA.4/5, BA.4.6, BA.2.75.2, BQ.1.1 and XBB.1) expressed as FFRNT50 (>50% suppression of fluorescent foci fluorescent focus reduction neutralization test) in recipients of four doses of monovalent mRNA-based coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, with epidemiologic variables like emergence date and number of spike protein mutations of these sublineages, cumulative worldwide COVID-19 cases and cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered worldwide at the time of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineage emergence. In the univariate analysis, the FFRNT50 value for the different SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages was significantly associated with all such variables except with the number of spike protein mutations. Such associations were confirmed in the multivariate analysis, which enabled the construction of the equation: “−0.3917 × [Emergence (date)] + 1.403 × [COVID-19 cases (million)] − 121.8 × [COVID-19 Vaccine doses (billion)] + 18,250”, predicting the FFRNT50 value of the five SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages with 0.996 accuracy (p = 0.013). We have shown in this work that a simple mathematical approach, encompassing a limited number of widely available epidemiologic variables, such as emergence date of new variants and number of COVID-19 cases and vaccinations, could help identifying the emergence and surge of future lineages with major propensity to impair humoral immunity.