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A Repeat Pattern of Founder Events for SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Alaska.

Tracie J Haan¹, Lisa K Smith², Stephanie DeRonde²

¹Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.

|January 21, 2023

Summary

Alaska

Keywords:

COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC)genomic epidemiology variant

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Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Genomics
Public Health

Background:

Alaska's unique geography influences disease dynamics.
SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) variants have emerged globally.
Understanding variant spread in diverse populations is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

To describe the pattern of SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence in Alaska.
To compare Alaska's variant landscape to the contiguous United States.
To investigate the origins and spread of specific SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages in Alaska.

Main Methods:

Analysis of genomic surveillance data.
Phylogenetic analysis to infer evolutionary relationships.
Logistic regression modeling to assess emergence and spread patterns.

Main Results:

The Omicron sublineage BA.2.3 became dominant in Alaska by February 27, 2022 (48.5% of cases).
In contrast, BA.2.3 prevalence was lower (10.9%) in the contiguous US, where BA.1.1 dominated longer.
Phylogenetics suggested potential Alaskan origins for major BA.2.3 clades, with logistic regression modeling spread.

Conclusions:

Alaska's unique characteristics likely influenced SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence.
Founder events may have played a role in the spread of BA.2.3 within Alaska.
Genomic surveillance reveals distinct variant dynamics in geographically isolated regions.