The pollution reduction effect of official turnover: evidence from China

Under the political system with Chinese characteristics, the turnover of regional officials becomes a norm. So the uncertainty generated by the turnover of officials can often have an impact on the pollution emissions of regional enterprises. This paper examines the impact of official turnover on corporate pollution emissions using the Chinese industrial enterprise database and pollution emission database from 2004 to 2014 in China, while matching urban panel data of prefecture-level cities. The empirical study finds that official turnover significantly reduces the pollution emission of enterprises in that year, while the effect of official turnover from economically developed to economically backward regions and from economically backward to economically developed regions on enterprises' pollution emissions is significantly different. Also, this paper finds that the turnover of officials has a short-term effect on the reduction of corporate pollution emissions. The pollution abatement effect of official turnover is more pronounced in non-resource cities and non-state enterprises. Further analysis reveals that the pollution reduction effect of official turnover is more pronounced when the age of officials is greater than the promotion age threshold of 54 years. Finally, a series of robustness tests were conducted in this paper, while the Heckman two-step method was used to test for endogeneity, and the conclusions reached remained consistent with the benchmark regression.