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Bayesian Inference for an Unknown Number of Attributes in Restricted Latent Class Models
Yinghan Chen1, Steven Andrew Culpepper2, Yuguo Chen2
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Nevada, Reno, 1664 North Virginia Street, Reno, NV, 89557, USA. yinghanc@unr.edu.
Abstract:
The specification of the [Formula: see text] matrix in cognitive diagnosis models is important for correct classification of attribute profiles. Researchers have proposed many methods for estimation and validation of the data-driven [Formula: see text] matrices. However, inference of the number of attributes in the general restricted latent class model remains an open question. We propose a Bayesian framework for general restricted latent class models and use the spike-and-slab prior to avoid the computation issues caused by the varying dimensions of model parameters associated with the number of attributes, K. We develop an efficient Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm to estimate K and the corresponding [Formula: see text] matrix simultaneously. The proposed algorithm uses the stick-breaking construction to mimic an Indian buffet process and employs a novel Metropolis-Hastings transition step to encourage exploring the sample space associated with different values of K. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method through a simulation study under different model specifications and apply the method to a real data set related to a fluid intelligence matrix reasoning test.
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However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
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