Analyzing multiple COVID-19 outbreak impacts: A case study based on Chinese national air passenger flow

Area of Science:

• Transportation Science
• Epidemiology
• Public Policy

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented disruptions to global traffic systems.
• Understanding the cumulative effects of multiple outbreaks is crucial for effective policy-making.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a novel method for analyzing the impact of multiple COVID-19 outbreaks on air passenger flow.
• To quantify the recovery rate and accumulated losses in air traffic systems.

Main Methods:

• Introduction of the COVID-19 Multiple Outbreak Analysis (NCMOA) method.
• Quantification of impacts using recovery rate and accumulated loss metrics.
• Case study analysis of Chinese national air traffic flow.

Main Results:

• Air passenger flow exhibited a consistent recovery pattern after the initial COVID-19 outbreak.
• Subsequent outbreaks primarily caused localized effects, without altering the overall recovery trajectory.
• Heterogeneous influence factors and trends were identified between outbreak epicenters (EC) and the national level.

Conclusions:

• The NCMOA method provides a detailed quantification of COVID-19's impact on air passenger flow under multiple disturbances.
• Findings support the development of differentiated policies for airlines and governments to manage future disruptions.