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Long-term capacity planning for obstetric surgical suites using quantile linear regression.

Franklin Dexter1, Richard H Epstein2, Kokila N Thenuwara1

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Anaesthesia and Intensive Care
|January 23, 2023
PubMed
Summary

Long-term capacity planning for obstetric operating rooms is feasible using linear regression, as caesarean birth rates show strong annual predictability. However, significant weekly caseload variability necessitates advanced modeling beyond simple experience for effective resource management.

Keywords:
Anaesthesiaanaesthesia departmenthospitalinpatientobstetricoperating roomsretrospective studies

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Area of Science:

  • Obstetrics and Gynecology
  • Health Services Research
  • Anesthesiology

Background:

  • Obstetric surgical suites are specialized and often smaller than general surgical units.
  • Effective long-term capacity planning is crucial for these unique environments to meet patient demand.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the feasibility of using linear regression for long-term capacity planning of obstetric operating rooms.
  • To assess the utility of the obstetric anesthesia activity index in workload assessment.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective cohort study of caesarean births (28 years) and other obstetric procedures (19 years).
  • Calculation of the obstetric anesthesia activity index: 0.5 × neuraxial labor analgesia placement + 1.0 × caesarean births.
  • Analysis of annual trends and weekly caseload variability using Pearson correlation coefficients and quantile analysis.

Main Results:

  • Annual caesarean births demonstrated high linear correlation (r=0.993), supporting linear regression for planning.
  • Weekly caseload variability (0.9 vs. 0.1 quantiles) was significantly larger than annual growth rates.
  • The obstetric anesthesia activity index increased linearly (r=0.98) over 19 years, with caesarean births remaining a stable workload fraction.

Conclusions:

  • Linear regression is a valid tool for long-term capacity planning of obstetric operating rooms.
  • Significant weekly workload fluctuations necessitate sophisticated modeling for accurate resource allocation.
  • Effective planning ensures adequate operating room and staff availability to meet hospital needs.