"Underneath the visible" - COVID-19 Risk prediction tools in a high-volume, low-resource Emergency Department

Patient risk stratification is the cornerstone of COVID-19 disease management; that has impacted health systems globally. We evaluated the performance of the Brescia-COVID Respiratory Severity Scale (BCRSS), CALL (Co-morbid, age, Lymphocyte and Lactate dehydrogenase) Score, and World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines in Emergency department (ED) on arrival, as predictors of outcomes; Intensive care unit (ICU) admission and in-hospital mortality.

A two-month retrospective chart review of 88 adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia; requiring emergency management was conducted at ED, Indus Hospital and Health Network (IHHN), Karachi, Pakistan, (April 1 to May 31, 2020). The sensitivity, specificity, receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) for the scores were obtained to assess their predictive capability for outcomes.

The in-hospital mortality rate was 48.9 % with 59.1 % ICU admissions and with a mean age at presentation of 56 ± 13 years. Receiver operator curve for BCRSS depicted good predicting capability for in hospital mortality [AUC 0.81(95% CI 0.71-0.91)] and ICU admission [AUC 0.73(95%CI 0.62-0.83)] amongst all models of risk assessment.

BCRSS depicted better prediction of in-hospital mortality and ICU admission. Prospective studies using this tool are needed to assess its utility in predicting high-risk patients and guide treatment escalation in LMIC's.